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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.